How RP can Improve its Weather Forecasting

“A forecast is a prediction. Ang pagsasabing inaccurate ang isang forecast ay inappropriate,” said Dr. Josefina Argete, professor of meteorology and deputy director of the Institute of Environmental Sciences and Meteorology at the University of the Philippines Diliman.

Dr. Argete also said that to fire former Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) administrator Prisco Nilo was not justifiable. Nilo was fired by Pres. Noynoy Aquino because PAGASA was not able to warn the public that Basyang would hit Metro Manila.

“Konti na nga lang ang trained meteorologists sa bansa, sisibakin pa,” she added.
Dr. Argete believes that PAGASA’s skills are “above average”, especially that the Philippines has a tropical climate which is very hard to predict as compared with the countries along the middle latitude.

PAGASA’s Public Information and International Affairs Staff officer in charge Venus Valdemoro said that their equipment are not old and are continuously upgraded.
“Siyempre kailangan nating makipagsabayan sa standard ng World Meteorological Organization regarding equipment and human resources,” she said.

But Stephanie Abnasan, a junior public health student at UP Manila and secretary of Sibol-PH, a political party geared towards change and development, believes that PAGASA has old equipments and already needs to buy new equipment. This is from what she sees in the television whenever PAGASA’s equipment are shown.

“Government’s task here is to give PAGASA funds, “Abnasan added.

Valdemoro said that PAGASA’s ongoing project to improve their services is the Doppler Radar Program. The Philippines currently has five weather surveillance radars in Aparri, Cagayan; Baguio; Virac, Catanduanes; Baler, Aurora; and Guiuan, Samar to track the location of a typhoon and its wind speed. The radars in Baguio and Baler are currently being upgraded into a Doppler radar. The others will be upgraded with the help of the Japanese government through the Japan International Cooperation Agency. Two others are in Subic and Surigao.

Used in meteorological services in other countries, a Doppler radar can predict the amount of rainfall that will come which will be very helpful in warning the people for possible floods.
However, Dr. Argete said, “Kahit ano pang ganda ng technology natin, balewala din kung kulang ang trained personnel. So ang tendency, ‘yung equipment masisira din.”
She said this is due to “piracy” or our trained personnel’s choice to work abroad instead of working here.

Another factor that Dr. Argete and Valdemoro believe as a possible cause of the said “inaccurate” forecast is that PAGASA does not rely on just one tool but on many different instruments.

“Kahit pa sophisticated ang equipment natin, iba-iba pa rin ang forecast ng bawat instrument. Ina-average lang ‘yan ng PAGASA,” Dr. Argete said.
PAGASA’s current sources for weather forecasting are radars, surface data, synoptic observations, upper air data, numerical weather predictions, satellite receiving facilities.

Valdemoro said, “Dapat iniintindi ng public that it’s not 100 % accurate. Kaya nga forecast eh.”

She explained that for example, they predict the center of a typhoon to be 200 kilometers in radius and to hit Metro Manila. If ever the typhoon hits Bulacan the most but still passes over Metro Manila, their forecast is still considered accurate since Metro Manila is still within the 200 km radius of the typhoon.

PAGASA’s current plans are to improve their forecasting capabilities and to focus on their communication with the general public.

Valdemoro said, “Ang tingin kasi ng tao sa PAGASA technical, so we plan the make a separate bulletin in our website for the public para mas maintindihan nila.”
This bulletin would be different to the bulletin posted in their website where their 24-hour public weather forecasts are posted. PAGASA issues their forecast twice a day, 5 a.m . and 5 p.m.

After a forecast, the information goes first to the office of the president, then to the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC), then to regional DCCs to provincial to municipal, down to the barangay level. The forecast is also relayed to the media for easy dissemination to the public.

Abnasan said, “Dapat laging on time magannounce ang media. Minsan wala ng bagyo saka pa lang sila magaannounce.”

PAGASA is conducting regional media seminar workshops annually to help reporters understand the terms PAGASA uses in its forecasts. This is also to improve PAGASA’s working relationship with the media.

Valdemoro said, “If media undergoes our seminar for 2-3 days, at least ‘pag nagcocover, ‘di na sila masyadong nosebleed.”

PAGASA is now planning to conduct the seminar at least twice a year in the National Capital Region.

Dr. Argete said that the government has always helped PAGASA with its equipment. Since PAGASA is the biggest agency under the Department of Science and Technology, it receives the largest budget from the DOST.

“Pero kahit maging 100 % accurate pa ang isang forecast, babaha pa rin. Ang flood ‘di lang naman dahil sa ulan o sa bagyo; nasa pagmamanage din 'yan ng lupa at mga basura. At ‘yun ang task ng government natin,” Dr. Argete said.